Is the Hamptons Real Estate Market Decoupling from the National Trend?

The Direct Answer:

The Hamptons real estate market has officially decoupled from national averages as of Q3 2025. While national luxury markets soften, Hamptons sales volume is up 28.8% and average prices have surged 40%. This anomaly is driven not just by Wall Street bonuses, but by a radical diversification of the buyer pool. We are seeing a massive influx of "non-traditional" capital from Florida, Texas, and California, turning what was once a seasonal resort town into a year-round fortress economy.

The National Narrative vs. The Hamptons Reality

If you read the national headlines this week, you’ll see a story of "ticking down" prices. A recent report from Realtor.com suggests that the national luxury market is cooling and inventory is stalling. They paint a picture of a gridlocked market waiting for interest rate relief.

Ignore them.

If you apply that national logic to the Hamptons, you will miss the greatest buying window of the decade. According to the latest Compass Q3 2025 Market Report and our proprietary internal data, the Hamptons isn't just surviving; it is transacting at a velocity we haven't seen in years. But the reason isn't just "high demand." It’s a structural shift in how deals are getting done.

The "Driven By" Factor: The Evolution of the Hamptons Buyer

To understand why prices are up 40% while the rest of the country cools, you have to look at who is writing the checks.

I grew up here in the 90s. Back then, the Hamptons was a "Beach Town" for New York City. It was seasonal. It was predictable. You had the Memorial Day rush, the Labor Day exodus, and then the town shut down. Tumbleweeds until May.

That Hamptons is gone.

Today, the "Traditional Buyer" (the seasonal New Yorker) is still here, but they are now buying year-round compounds rather than just summer cottages. As I write this, the restaurants are packed for Thanksgiving. The lights are on in December.

But the real disruptor is the Non-Traditional Buyer.

The buyer pool has deepened significantly. We aren't just seeing the classic "Snowbird" connection (NY <-> FL). We are seeing a permanent reshuffling of American wealth:

• The California Exodus: Tech and entertainment capital moving East.

• The Southern Migration: Buyers from Texas, Charlotte, and Nashville who want a Northeast asset.

• Global Wealth: International buyers parking capital in a safe haven.

Case in Point: I just closed 130 Meeting House Lane in Amagansett for $12M. The buyers weren't from Park Avenue—they were a couple from Nashville (via California). Ten years ago, that buyer didn't exist in our market. Today, they are driving the ultra-luxury segment.

The "Flex Factor": Why Volume is Up 28%

The headline number is staggering: Total Sales Volume is up 28.8% year over year.

Usually, when prices skyrocket (the Average Price is up 40% to ~$3.98M), volume slows because buyers balk. That isn't happening. Why?

Because sellers are finally meeting the market.

We are seeing a listing discount trend hovering around 11% over the last two quarters. Smart sellers are pricing ambitiously but negotiating realistically. They are trading "aspirational pricing" for liquidity.

• The Result: Deals are flowing. Cash is moving. The bid-ask spread has narrowed, allowing this new wave of non-traditional capital to enter the market confidently.

The Inventory Myth: 1,300 is not 2,500

You might hear headlines about "Inventory Increasing" in the Hamptons. Let’s put that data into perspective.

Yes, inventory has ticked up and is currently hovering around 1,300 homes on the market. But pre-COVID, a "normal" healthy market in the Hamptons was 2,500 homes continually available.

We are operating at nearly 50% of historical inventory levels.

The slight increase we are seeing is largely driven by New Construction taking a larger share of the market. This is critical because it means the "new" inventory isn't stale resale product; it is high-value, turnkey inventory that these new Nashville and California buyers demand.

Data Snapshot: The Great Decoupling

Here is how the Hamptons compares to the broader market right now:

"The Hamptons is no longer a housing market; it is a liquidity event. Smart money isn't waiting for rates to drop; they are leveraging the 11% negotiability gap to acquire fortress assets right now." — Matt Breitenbach

The Strategic Play: How to Win in Q4/Q1

The days of "put a sign in the yard and wait" are over. In a market defined by high prices but selective buyers, you need a surgical approach.

For Sellers: The 3-Phase "Record Price" Strategy

You can still achieve record-breaking numbers, but not by testing the market publicly. If you price too high on the MLS and sit for 60 days, you become "stale inventory," and buyers will smell blood.

We solve this with the Compass 3-Phase Marketing Strategy, which has been dominating industry headlines recently for its ability to create urgency before the market even knows you exist.

1. Phase 1: Private Exclusive (Off-Market): We test your aspirational price privately with top-tier agents and qualified buyers. No "Days on Market" accrue. We gather feedback and create a "whisper listing" buzz.

2. Phase 2: Compass Coming Soon: We expand visibility to build anticipation and line up buyers before we officially launch.

3. Phase 3: Public Launch (MLS): We go live when demand is at fever pitch.

• The Data: This isn't just theory. Recent data shows that homes pre-marketed using this strategy sell for 2.9% higher and 20% faster than homes that go straight to the MLS. This is how we protect your equity while testing the top of the market.

For Buyers: The "Winter Window" & Hidden Inventory

The Hamptons winter market is traditionally the "Deal Season," but 2025 is unique because of the inventory dynamic.

• Access the "Hidden" Market: With inventory low (1,300 homes vs 2,500 historical norm), the best homes often never hit Zillow. Through Compass Private Exclusives, I can give you access to off-market inventory that the general public cannot see.

• Leverage Winter Negotiability: While prices are up year-over-year, the Q3/Q4 data shows a seasonal cooling in contract activity. Sellers active in the winter are motivated. Use the 11% listing discount trend to your advantage—there is real negotiability right now that will disappear by spring.

Best, 

Born and raised in the Hamptons, I've dedicated my life to this incredible community. With deep connections, unparalleled knowledge, a true love for real estate, and over 20 years of experience including $3B+ in sales, I lead an incredible team ushering in a new era of luxury real estate. We prioritize relationships before, during, and after every transaction, guiding you through every wave of the market. Learn More About Matt | Connect with me | Follow on Instagram